In the Yahoo Fantasy Football Forecast, Liz Loza and The Athletic’s Michael Salfino break down the Jets backfield and examine the former Iowa State running back’s fantasy potential
LIZ LOZA: I want to talk about Breece Hall from a fantasy standpoint. I mean, if you look at the market at running backs now drafted in the first round, was at the top of everybody’s board heading into April’s draft. But Michael Carter did show promise. Now I don’t believe that Michael Carter is an every-down back. And obviously front offices don’t play fantasy the way that we do, so they don’t really care. But he did overperform, especially considering all of the obstacles he faced last season.
I think that Breece Hall is going to be the workhorse. I don’t think that you draft– that you trade up for a running back in this market if you don’t plan to use him. And especially given everything that he did in college, it would make sense that he profiles to be an every-down option. Where are you looking at putting Carter in relation to him? Or do you think it will be closer to a timeshare than a lot of drafters are anticipating?
MICHAEL SALFINO: I think it’ll be a timeshare in the traditional NFL sense where I expect that he’ll get– Breece Hall will get 65% of the touches, and Carter will get about 35% of the touches. I don’t know what Tevin Coleman is going to do. He’s another guy who’s just there sort of like as a veteran presence, I think. So I would think that when they’re both healthy, that’s probably the likely split, somewhere around that range.
And the most we could expect from a running back in today’s market is a 75% market share, so it’s not that big of a ding. There’s only maybe five guys in the NFL who are going to be 75% snaps or greater. So I think our gambling pro at BetPrep.com, Brad Feinberg, likes Breece Hall at 9 to 1 for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. And I think that’s a very good bet because last five NFL Offensive Rookie of the Years have been running backs or quarterbacks. And I dare anybody to say that a quarterback is going to be the Rookie of the Year this year.
So that means that you have to pick a running back, and why not Hall? I mean, the Jets offensive line should be average or better and their offensive system. Breece Hall might be the most talented back ever in a– or at least since Clinton Portis in a Mike Shanahan slash Kyle Shanahan offensive system.
LIZ LOZA: In that dead zone, that dreaded dead zone of running backs, Breece Hall is right now the 24th running back coming off the board. Top of the fifth round if you’re playing in a 12-team league. And this is half-point PPR ADP, of course, which is Yahoo standard. Do you like him there? Is he a value there? Is that where he should be?
Also, asterisk to add, Michael Carter coming off the board really three rounds later, early in the ninth round. Sometimes, he sneaks into the eighth, probably in more full-point PPR formats. And he is the 34th running back coming off of the board. I will go on record before I even get your response and say that I think Hall is an incredible value right there, and he’s a target for me that late in every single draft.
MICHAEL SALFINO: Yeah, I think Hall at the three-four turn is an excellent pick if you can get him late. And I never draft running backs at that stage of the draft. But I do think that there’s a non-zero chance that Breece Hall could be a top-five fantasy running back this year. He’s also an effective pass catcher. I’m not saying that that’s likely.
But the thing is, you have to be paid to gamble. And they’re paying you– when you’re drafting Hall, even at running back 17 to 20, they’re paying you to gamble that he has that kind of upside. And this is a guy who has the same athletic profile as Jonathan Taylor. We’re talking about a big-time running back prospect.