Alcaraz vs. Sinner Odds
|Time | How to Watch||10 a.m. ET | ESPN/ESPN+|
|Odds via PointsBet. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here.|
It’s the match of the day on Sunday from Wimbledon.
Young sensations Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner go head-to-head on Center Court for a spot in the quarterfinals.
Now that Alcaraz has found some rhythm, can he keep his run at the year’s third slam alive? Does the Italian have what it takes to slow him down?
Let’s break it down.
Alcaraz Looking Comfortable On Grass
It was fairly clear from the early goings that even the phenoms of the sport aren’t immune to the acclimation period that comes with grass-court tennis.
After needing five sets to topple Yuichi Sugita in the first round last year, Alcaraz was absolutely thrashed by Daniil Medvedev.
This season, Alcaraz elected to use the Hurlingham exhibition as his warmup and he dropped all four sets played.
Alcaraz’s first rounder at the All England Club was also a nervy one, having trailed two sets to one to Jan-Lennard Struff before coming back and winning the decider.
Since then, however, it appears he’s found his footing. With incredible reaction times, elite shotmaking ability and a great game from the baseline, once that best-in-the-world movement came along and he was comfortable on the grass he was always going to be a threat.
It appears that he’s found that comfort, as he’s won his last six sets, with just one of them going beyond 10 games.
Alcaraz’s signature return game is shining through and his serve is playing up (his ace rate is double the rate he’s hit over the last 52 weeks and his first serve points won are up over 80% vs. the 71.5% number over the last 52).
Sinner Looking For More Grass Progress
At 20-years old, Sinner enters this match as the older player in this third-round tilt between two of the best young players in the sport.
He’s managed to take advantage of a decent draw, outlasting Stan Wawrinka, handling the lighter-hitting Mikael Ymer in four sets and then beating the massive-serving John Isner in straights.
It’s a much different test that awaits in the round of 16, however, as he’s tasked with trying to slow down an Alcaraz that is on a tear.
With a consistent game from the baseline that generates easy power, Sinner has ascended the ATP rankings rather rapidly.
His backhand is the more consistent weapon, and the Italian doesn’t have too many weaknesses in his game from a serve/groundstrokes standpoint.
The issue for him is the movement on grass courts and his return game, as he has problems extending points against players that possess effective serve-plus-one games.
With Alcaraz finding so much success behind his first serves this week, it’s going to be an uphill battle.
Alcaraz’s serve has greatly benefited from the quicker surface, and with him holding such a large edge in both the return of serve and athleticism departments, it’s hard to bet against the Spaniard.
The display he’s put on since the first round has been dominant and signaled to the tennis world that he’s ready to contend on what has traditionally been his weaker surface.
It’s hard to find a path for Sinner on return, and after Alcaraz managed to break one of the better grass-court servers on tour with ease in the third round, it’s easy to see Alcaraz winning this by more than 6 games.
I’m going to trust the kid with the better all-around game that has been getting better with each passing round.
Picks: Alcaraz -4.5 games (-115 via PointsBet)
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